Page 21 - Turkinsurance Digital Magazine

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S&P Global’s Top Geopolitical Risks for 2024 report highlights numerous interconnected
threats and underscores the importance of international collaboration in overcoming them.

In a world rapidly shifting from globalization to geopolitics—exacerbated by shocks such
as the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict—global structures
and relationships are undergoing a profound transformation. Key risks identified for 2024
include Russia-NATO tensions, cybersecurity threats, U.S.-China strategic competition,
deglobalization, and climate-related risks.

Russia and NATO: Rising Costs of Geopolitical Imbalance in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. This pragmatism reflects
a growing willingness among governments to balance protection-
The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, continues to have ist policies with international cooperation. While global trade is
far-reaching global consequences. According to the report, the war expected to contract in early 2024, a recovery is anticipated later
has triggered a humanitarian crisis while also destabilizing energy in the year, with a return to long-term stable growth. Despite the
markets, trade, and capital flows. Neither side appears to be seek- pushback against globalization, the need for cross-border collab-
ing a resolution, and the conflict poses an ongoing risk of escala- oration remains essential in managing economic and geopolitical
tion. One of the key concerns remains the deteriorating relationship risks.
between Russia and NATO, with tensions reaching their highest
point since the Cold War. This fraught dynamic not only escalates Climate Crisis: The Defining Geopolitical Challenge of Our
military risks but also exacerbates Europe’s energy crisis, as coun- Time
tries scramble to find alternative energy sources.
Among the most significant geopolitical risks identified in the re-
Cybersecurity: The Dark Side of Digitalization port is climate change. The far-reaching impacts of climate-related
risks—ranging from extreme weather events and species extinction
As digitalization permeates national infrastructure—from energy to rising sea levels and poverty—are already being felt globally.
grids to transportation systems—cyberattacks are becoming an in- S&P Global emphasizes that without concerted international ac-
creasingly severe geopolitical risk. S&P Global’s report warns that tion, the consequences could be catastrophic, leading to mass dis-
successful cyberattacks on critical infrastructure could have dev- placement, food and water insecurity, and civil unrest. The Paris
astating consequences for both public safety and national security. Agreement, signed by 196 countries in 2015, remains one of the
These attacks, which extend beyond financial losses, threaten the most important frameworks for global cooperation on climate.
very functioning of essential services and pose a significant risk to However, resistance from fossil-fuel-dependent nations threatens
governments and corporations alike. The increasing sophistication to hinder progress, further exacerbating geopolitical tensions as
of these attacks, often linked to state actors, adds to the complexity countries compete for affordable energy.
of managing this growing threat.
Energy Security: A Growing Concern
U.S.-China Rivalry: A Delicate Balancing Act
The global context of many of these risks points to an increas-
The strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China remains a critical ing concern over energy security. Europe, in particular, has faced
source of geopolitical risk in 2024. Despite deep economic interde- significant energy challenges following the outbreak of the Rus-
pendence, especially in trade and technology, the two nations are sia-Ukraine war, losing access to Russian gas supplies and experi-
locked in a competitive relationship that could escalate. S&P Glob- encing skyrocketing energy prices. The digitalization of the energy
al highlights tensions over China’s military presence in the South sector, while bringing about efficiencies, has also opened up new
China Sea and U.S. trade restrictions as key flashpoints. The report vulnerabilities to cyberattacks. According to the report, one of the
notes that while both countries are committed to managing their key risks for 2024 is the potential for cyberattacks to disrupt crit-
competition responsibly, the risk of a broader geopolitical conflict ical energy infrastructure, leading to widespread energy shortages
remains. Taiwan, in particular, is a highly sensitive issue that could and price spikes. This underscores the importance of securing ener-
lead to further deterioration in relations. gy systems both physically and digitally.
Deglobalization and the Rise of Pragmatism As we move through 2024, the interconnected nature of these risks
highlights the need for greater international cooperation and pro-
The rise of nationalism, protectionism, and populist movements active policy responses. From climate action to cybersecurity, the
has raised questions about the future of globalization. The report, future of global stability will depend on the ability of governments
however, notes a new wave of pragmatism emerging, particularly and corporations to navigate these evolving challenges together.