Allianz Shared the Business World’s ''Black Swan'' Scenarios: The Most Alarming Scenario Is Supply Chain Paralysis and a Global Internet Outage!

The results of Allianz Commercial’s “Business Black Swans” study, which identifies potential “Black Swan” events causing concern in the global business world, have been announced.

Accordingly, around 50% of companies worldwide identify supply chain paralysis and a global internet outage as the two most likely Black Swan scenarios over the next five years. Geopolitical uncertainty across the globe is overshadowing high-impact risks in the climate, health, and technology domains. In Türkiye, meanwhile, social and political developments emerge as the number one catastrophe scenario for nearly half of businesses.

The study conducted by Allianz Commercial on the Black Swan scenarios that concern the global business community most over the next five years has been published. Black Swan scenarios are defined as unexpected or unpredictable events that, although they may appear foreseeable, are highly destructive and economically damaging. The 11 September 2001 attacks, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic are cited among the Black Swan examples with major global impacts. Allianz Research estimates that the pandemic resulted in cumulative losses of approximately USD 12 trillion in global GDP between 2020 and 2023. In addition to major financial and operational costs, such events often have long-term effects, leading to geopolitical and social changes that continue years after the onset of the event. The new study published by Allianz Commercial lists the risks considered most likely over the next five years by companies of all sizes—small, medium, and large.

According to the results of the Business Black Swans study, prepared with the views of more than 3,000 business and risk management experts, over half of respondents (51%) identified global supply chain paralysis caused by a geopolitical conflict as the most likely Black Swan scenario to affect their companies over the next five years. A global internet outage ranks second on the list (47%), reflecting growing awareness in the business world of cyber and artificial intelligence-related risks.

Geopolitical Crises as a Key Driver of Black Swan Events

Given the current geopolitical environment, supply chain paralysis resulting from a geopolitical conflict stands out as the most likely Black Swan scenario. Alongside risks related to tariffs, trade wars, and protectionism, disruptions in supply chains and logistics caused by regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine rank high on the agenda of boards worldwide today. Allianz Commercial estimates that a global supply chain disruption on the scale of the war in Ukraine could result in cumulative GDP losses of up to USD 1.5 trillion over a two-year period. According to most respondents in the study, political risks emerge as the leading potential trigger for Black Swan events. Mass civil unrest and political instability are considered the fourth most likely scenario globally (29%), ranking among the top three risks in the Americas (31%), Africa and the Middle East (41%), and France (42%). The sudden collapse of a major financial institution or a sovereign debt crisis leading to a global liquidity crunch and severe market volatility ranks third (30%).

The interconnectivity and interdependence of both physical and digital supply chains, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological advances, and climate change, are potentially increasing vulnerability. Businesses and global supply chains are becoming more exposed to Black Swan events due to the limited number of critical suppliers in areas such as artificial intelligence and digital services, semiconductors, rare earth processors, and transition technologies, as well as the concentration of product-dependent economic activity.

Social and Political Developments Rank First in Türkiye

The Türkiye results of the study are also striking. In Türkiye, social and political developments emerge as the number one catastrophe scenario for approximately half of companies (46%). The simultaneous occurrence of a climate disaster and an energy grid failure ranks second at 42%. The scenario of the sudden collapse of a major financial institution, which received the same percentage of responses, ranks third.

Company Size Influences Risk Perception

Global supply chain paralysis caused by a geopolitical conflict disrupting the flow of goods and raw materials ranks as the top concern for both large companies (with annual revenues of USD 500 million and above) and mid-sized companies (with annual revenues between USD 100 million and USD 500 million). By contrast, smaller companies (with annual revenues below USD 100 million) are most concerned about the impact of a global internet outage (45%), which is listed as the second most likely scenario for large and mid-sized enterprises. For mid-sized and smaller companies, the third most likely Black Swan event is the sudden collapse of a major financial institution. Larger companies, meanwhile, are more concerned about the simultaneous occurrence of a climate disaster and an energy grid failure—for example, a heatwave triggering wildfires and widespread power outages. Multinational companies believe they are better prepared than small and mid-sized competitors to mitigate the risks of an event such as a major internet outage, as they typically have larger budgets and more diversified portfolios.

“We focus on increasing risk awareness in society and strengthening the resilience of businesses”

Öktem Örkün, Deputy General Manager of Commercial Non-Life Insurance at Allianz Türkiye, evaluated the findings of the study as follows: “Although awareness of the need to be more resilient to potential risks has increased in recent years both globally and in our country, we cannot expect businesses to be 100% prepared for high-impact events such as a global disruption or a climate disaster. The most practical and important step in preparing for potential catastrophe scenarios we call Black Swans is to increase agility, raise risk awareness, and develop scalable response plans for various scenarios. Insurance protects individuals, societies, and businesses from financial shocks against potential risks, helps wounds heal faster after unforeseen events, supports quicker recovery, and forms the foundation of long-term investments. At Allianz Türkiye, through our awareness-focused approach aimed at increasing insurance penetration in our country, we focus not only on increasing the number of policies but also on raising risk awareness and strengthening the resilience of businesses. In this context, we position commercial and industrial enterprises as one of our priority focus areas; through our expert risk engineers under Allianz Teknik consultancy, we share our experience, organize risk management trainings for businesses, and support the implementation of necessary measures by identifying potential hazards in advance through our field visits and online risk analyses.”

You can access Allianz Commercial’s Business Black Swans study here.