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Allianz Shared the Business World’s “Black Swan”
Scenarios: The Most Alarming Scenario Is Supply
Chain Paralysis and a Global Internet Outage!

According to the results of the Business as artificial intelligence and digital servic-
Black Swans study, prepared with the es, semiconductors, rare earth processors,
views of more than 3,000 business and and transition technologies, as well as the
risk management experts, over half of concentration of product-dependent eco-
respondents (51%) identified global nomic activity.
supply chain paralysis caused by a geo-
political conflict as the most likely Black The Türkiye results of the study are also
The results of Allianz Commercial’s Swan scenario to affect their companies striking. In Türkiye, social and political
“Business Black Swans” study, which over the next five years. A global internet developments emerge as the number one
identifies potential “Black Swan” events outage ranks second on the list (47%), catastrophe scenario for approximately
causing concern in the global business reflecting growing awareness in the busi- half of companies (46%). The simultane-
world, have been announced. ness world of cyber and artificial intelli- ous occurrence of a climate disaster and
gence-related risks. an energy grid failure ranks second at
Accordingly, around 50% of companies 42%. The scenario of the sudden collapse
worldwide identify supply chain paralysis Given the current geopolitical environ- of a major financial institution, which re-
and a global internet outage as the two ment, supply chain paralysis resulting ceived the same percentage of responses,
most likely Black Swan scenarios over from a geopolitical conflict stands out ranks third.
the next five years. Geopolitical uncer- as the most likely Black Swan scenario.
tainty across the globe is overshadowing Alongside risks related to tariffs, trade Company Size Influences Risk
high-impact risks in the climate, health, wars, and protectionism, disruptions in Perception
and technology domains. In Türkiye, supply chains and logistics caused by re-
meanwhile, social and political develop- gional conflicts in the Middle East and Global supply chain paralysis caused
ments emerge as the number one catastro- Russia/Ukraine rank high on the agenda by a geopolitical conflict disrupting the
phe scenario for nearly half of businesses. of boards worldwide today. Allianz Com- flow of goods and raw materials ranks
mercial estimates that a global supply as the top concern for both large com-
The study conducted by Allianz Commer- chain disruption on the scale of the war panies (with annual revenues of USD
cial on the Black Swan scenarios that con- in Ukraine could result in cumulative 500 million and above) and mid-sized
cern the global business community most GDP losses of up to USD 1.5 trillion over companies (with annual revenues be-
over the next five years has been pub- a two-year period. According to most tween USD 100 million and USD 500
lished. Black Swan scenarios are defined respondents in the study, political risks million). By contrast, smaller compa-
as unexpected or unpredictable events emerge as the leading potential trigger nies (with annual revenues below USD
that, although they may appear foresee- for Black Swan events. Mass civil unrest 100 million) are most concerned about
able, are highly destructive and economi- and political instability are considered the impact of a global internet out-
cally damaging. The 11 September 2001 the fourth most likely scenario globally age (45%), which is listed as the sec-
attacks, the 2008 global financial crisis, (29%), ranking among the top three risks ond most likely scenario for large and
and the COVID-19 pandemic are cited in the Americas (31%), Africa and the mid-sized enterprises. For mid-sized
among the Black Swan examples with Middle East (41%), and France (42%). and smaller companies, the third most
major global impacts. Allianz Research The sudden collapse of a major financial likely Black Swan event is the sudden
estimates that the pandemic resulted in institution or a sovereign debt crisis lead- collapse of a major financial institu-
cumulative losses of approximately USD ing to a global liquidity crunch and severe tion. Larger companies, meanwhile, are
12 trillion in global GDP between 2020 market volatility ranks third (30%). more concerned about the simultaneous
and 2023. In addition to major financial occurrence of a climate disaster and
and operational costs, such events often The interconnectivity and interdepend- an energy grid failure—for example, a
have long-term effects, leading to geopo- ence of both physical and digital supply heatwave triggering wildfires and wide-
litical and social changes that continue chains, combined with geopolitical uncer- spread power outages. Multinational
years after the onset of the event. The new tainty, rapid technological advances, and companies believe they are better pre-
study published by Allianz Commercial climate change, are potentially increasing pared than small and mid-sized compet-
lists the risks considered most likely over vulnerability. Businesses and global sup- itors to mitigate the risks of an event
the next five years by companies of all siz- ply chains are becoming more exposed such as a major internet outage, as they
es—small, medium, and large. to Black Swan events due to the limited typically have larger budgets and more
number of critical suppliers in areas such diversified portfolios.